Nature can be a bitch

It’s the first cyclone of the season on the east coast of Australia – or maybe the last of this summer’s cyclone season. Cyclone Alfred is a most unusual storm. Most cyclones are seen off Queensland’s northern coastline and the locals in Cairns, Townsville, Mackay and those parts are used to the big storms. They know how to cope and their houses are constructed to withstand most of the force. But Alfred has headed south, dissipating a little of its energy (but not much) so now it’s a category 2 system which is expected to make landfall as a cat 1 north of Brisbane. That’s subject to change without notice. Cyclones are notoriously fickle beasts. [In fact as I write at 5:30am 8 March it is now a cat 1, has battered the islands off Brisbane and is over Bribie Island (Just under Caloundra 24).]

Please note, the storm is a looong way south of us. We might get a bit of rain later but it’s bright and sunny with a bit of breeze. We’re fine.

Already monster waves are hitting the shores. One at Broadbeach was measured at a record-breaking 12.3m. Disaster experts say most homes built after 1980 should be able to withstand winds generated by a category 2 system if they have been well maintained. But many houses in the affected area will be older than that. The advantage of a slow moving cyclone is there’s time to prepare. We’ve been listening to broadcasts on radio and TV and reading the news. State authorities in Queensland and New South Wales have done everything they can to prepare for the storm and (most importantly) for the aftermath. Military assets will be deployed where necessary. People are busy filling sandbags and preparing their properties from this (almost) unprecedented storm, clearing gutters, tying down outdoor furniture or bringing it inside, preparing their evacuation packs with passports, insurance docs, medicines, battery-operated radio, torches, filling bathtubs with water in case supply is cut. Supermarkets shelves are empty as people stock up with essentials.

I’m sure there will be people running around flailing their arms, shouting ‘climate change’. But it HAS happened before.

• 1893 Floods: Brisbane experienced three major floods in February 1893, each associated with separate tropical cyclones. These events collectively caused significant devastation, leaving up to one-third of Brisbane’s residents homeless and resulting in 35 fatalities. en.wikipedia.org
• 1954 Cyclone: The “Great Gold Coast Cyclone” of 1954 made landfall near Coolangatta and Tweed Heads, causing extensive damage across the Gold Coast, Brisbane, and the Sunshine Coast. This cyclone predated the official naming conventions introduced in 1963. brisbanetimes.com.au
• Cyclone Dora (1971): Cyclone Dora crossed the coast near Redcliffe in 1971, shortly after the Bureau of Meteorology began naming cyclones in 1963.
• Cyclone Daisy (1972): Cyclone Daisy made landfall on Fraser Island (K’Gari) in 1972, contributing to the region’s history of cyclone impacts.
• Cyclone Wanda (1974): Cyclone Wanda struck Brisbane in 1974, leading to severe flooding and widespread damage. Cyclone Zoe (1974): Cyclone Zoe crossed the coast near Coolangatta in 1974, causing significant impacts in southeast Queensland. brisbanetimes.com.au
• Cyclone Nancy (1990): Cyclone Nancy crossed the coast near Byron Bay in February 1990, causing flooding in low-lying areas of the Sunshine Coast. sunshinecoastnews.com.au

And on the other side of the country, which also experiences cyclones, the story is the same. Most of them hit Up North but the storms listed hit from about 27 degrees latitude – which is about the same as Brisbane.

• Cyclone Seroja (2021): Made landfall near Kalbarri on April 11, 2021, causing extensive damage to approximately 70% of structures in the town, with around 40% completely destroyed. The storm also led to widespread power outages affecting over 25,000 residents. en.wikipedia.org
• Cyclone Olwyn (2015): Struck near Exmouth on March 13, 2015, as a Category 3 cyclone, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds to coastal areas, including Kalbarri. The cyclone caused extensive damage to infrastructure and property along its path, with damages estimated to be in excess of A$100 million. en.wikipedia.org
• Cyclone Alby (1978): In early April 1978, Alby moved rapidly southward along the Western Australian coast, bringing damaging winds to much of the region around Cape Leeuwin. The highest winds reached 150 km/h in Albany. The intense winds resulted in widespread agricultural, environmental, and structural damage, with five fatalities and approximately A$50 million in damages. en.wikipedia.org
• Cyclone Elaine (1999): Made landfall on March 20, 1999, between Kalbarri and Geraldton. The cyclone caused severe flooding, particularly in the town of Moora, where more than 1,000 people were evacuated. en.wikipedia.org

“Severe Tropical Cyclone Alby was regarded as the most devastating tropical cyclone to impact southwestern Western Australia on record. Forming out of an area of low pressure on 27 March 1978, Alby steadily developed as it tracked southwestward, parallel to the west coast. Between 1 and 2 April, the storm quickly intensified and attained its peak intensity as a Category 5 cyclone on the Australian cyclone intensity scale. After turning to the southeast, the storm underwent an extratropical transition as it neared Cape Leeuwin. The storm brushed the cape on 4 April, bringing hurricane-force winds, before rapidly losing its identity the following day.” [2]

Alby caused extensive damage in the South West, including to the city of Perth and larger coastal centres like Bunbury, Busselton, and Albany. There was coastal flooding and erosion, and widespread flooding inland. As it happens I was working in Bunbury when Alby came to visit. He made a mess.

But back to south east Queensland. Fifty years ago the population of Greater Brisbane was about 1 million. Now, it’s over 3 million, so the impacts will be much larger. And that’s just the city. This cyclone will affect rural populations inland and in the Northern Rivers district of New South Wales, even when it becomes a rain depression. Last reports say Alfred has slowed down and is due to cross the coast on the weekend. That means it will hang around for longer, dumping rain on towns that were decimated by storms just a few years ago. So sad. Nature can be a bitch.

• #By NASA – NASA, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=12158939
• ## Image from Windy.com